TRADING – ANALISI TECNICA VS ANALISI FONDAMENTALE
Per chi si avvicina per la prima volta, ma anche per coloro che ormai possono essere considerati dei veterani dei mercati finanziari, va detto o ricordato che esistono diverse tipologie di analisi, ovvero delle metodologie che si possono applicare allo studio e all’andamento dei mercati in modo tale da prevederne il futuro.
Nel corso del tempo, si sono andate sviluppando scuole di pensiero differenti, soprattutto nel trading online, portando a due differenti approcci che possono aiutare il trader nell’analizzare il mercato a caccia di opportunità di trading profittevoli:
- l’analisi tecnica;
- l’analisi fondamentale.
Quindi, Per qualsiasi attività di trading, lo studio dei mercati avviene tramite l’impiego dell’analisi tecnica e fondamentale. Alcuni traders si specializzano solamente o nell’una o nell’altra, anche se sarebbe preferibile un uso congiunto.
PARLIAMO DI ANALISI TECNICA
In economia l’analisi tecnica (AT) è lo studio dell’andamento dei prezzi dei mercati finanziari nel tempo, allo scopo di prevederne le tendenze future, mediante principalmente metodi grafici e statistici.
Viene utilizzata, assieme all’analisi fondamentale, per la definizione delle decisioni di operatività finanziaria.
L’analisi tecnica si prefigge di analizzare e comprendere, attraverso l’analisi del grafico, l’andamento dei prezzi, il quale a sua volta rispecchia le decisioni degli investitori; inoltre si basa sull’assunto fondamentale che, poiché il comportamento degli investitori si ripete nel tempo, al verificarsi di certe condizioni grafiche, anche i prezzi si muoveranno di conseguenza.
PARLIAMO DI ANALISI FONDAMENTALE
L’analisi fondamentale è, unitamente all’analisi tecnica, il principale strumento per lo studio finalizzato a supportare un investimento (trading).
La principale differenza tra l’analisi tecnica e fondamentale è semplice: l’analisi fondamentale studia il valore intrinseco di uno strumento finanziario, di un azione, di una quota di una società, di un mercato, di una particolare economia, andando a utilizzare indicatori sintetici; nel caso delle valute il Pil, il tasso di disoccupazione, l’inflazione, il livello dei tassi d’interesse, il settore immobiliare, le importazioni e le esportazioni, le vendite al dettaglio, la fiducia dei consumatori ecc. Invece, l’analisi tecnica si basa sulle figure storiche del mercato, con la convinzione che un’identica formazione grafica deve generare lo stesso movimento nel passato e nel futuro dei prezzi.
Tra la marea dei piccoli traders l’analisi fondamentale è molto sottovalutata, ma per il mercato Forex i trader professionisti concordano nell’affermare che l’analisi fondamentale, può fare la differenza. A volte capita che un movimento anomalo dal punto di vista dell’analisi tecnica, può essere spiegato solamente con l’analisi fondamentale.
ANALISI TECNICA E FONDAMENTALE POSSONO COESISTERE?
Sebbene analisi tecnica e fondamentale siano considerate come poli opposti, molti partecipanti attivi sul mercato ne hanno fatto una combinazione vincente. Ad esempio alcuni analisti fondamentali utilizzano gli strumenti dell’analisi tecnica per individuare i momenti migliori per entrare sul mercato.
Non di meno, molti analisti tecnici sfruttano i fondamentali economici a supporto dei segnali tecnici. Ad esempio, se un pattern tecnico sul grafico ci indica la possibilità di vendere, possiamo fare riferimento ai dati fondamentali per ottenere una conferma di questo pattern.
Un mix di analisi tecnica e fondamentale non è ben accolto dagli «estremisti» di entrambe le scuole di pensiero, ma è innegabile il beneficio che possiamo trarre comprendendo appieno la forma mentis dell’analista tecnico e di quello fondamentale.
Qualora questa pubblicazione ti sia risultata utile e gradita, per rimanere sempre aggiornato iscriviti gratuitamente alla newsletter settimanale oppure seguici sui social network (facebook ).
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